研究发现，如果核战争爆发，海洋将永远无法完全恢复 

科学家们对陆地上的核战争后会发生什么有一个很好的想法:烟灰会充满大气并阻挡太阳, leading to worldwide crop failures and famine. But, until recently, 他们对核武器爆炸对海洋的影响知之甚少, which cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface.

A recent study in the journal AGU Advances 帮助填补空白:核战争将对世界海洋造成严重破坏, causing them to cool rapidly and become choked with sea ice. Ocean marine life would die out, 海洋生态系统需要几十年甚至更长时间才能恢复. 

“这项研究表明，核冲突的后果可能相当可怕,” says Nicole Lovenduski, 该论文的作者之一，博彩平台推荐大气与海洋科学系(ATOC)和北极与高山研究所(INSTAAR)的副教授，. 

“Because the ocean moves slowly, when you change or perturb the ocean, it takes a long time to recover back to its initial state. 海洋将受到几十年、几百年或几千年的影响，这取决于过程. And in our experiments, it really never recovered,” she says.

全世界共有大约1.3万枚核武器，由9个国家控制. While a few thousand weapons are waiting to be dismantled, the United States and Russia each have roughly 4,000枚已部署或备用的核武器——占所有现役核武器的90%——而其他国家的核武库要小得多. 

India and Pakistan each have 150; China, Britain and France have roughly 200 each; Israel has 100; and North Korea has an unknown number, according to Brian Toon, 该论文的作者之一，也是ATOC和大气与空间物理实验室(LASP)的教授。.

To understand what might happen to the oceans after nuclear detonation, 科学家们进行了一系列模拟主要核冲突的模拟, such as what could occur between the United States and Russia, as well as smaller wars, such as those between nations like India and Pakistan. 

No matter the location or magnitude of the war, the researchers found that soot would quickly clog the stratosphere, 阻止阳光照射到海洋表面大约十年. 

“Once soot gets up there, there are very few natural processes by which it can leave, so it hangs out there for a while,” Lovenduski says. “It gets mixed all around and forms a cloud of soot around the Earth, which leads to a cooling of the climate system.”

After a nuclear war between the United States and Russia, 他们预测，在冲突结束后的三年内，全球海洋和陆地的平均表面温度将下降10摄氏度(18华氏度), triggering what researchers have called a nuclear winter. 

Ocean temperatures would also drop dramatically, creating a new “ocean state for the lifetime of many organisms, including humans” long after the conflict ends, the researchers write. The colder temperatures would allow sea ice to proliferate, which would block shipping routes and major ports.

“博彩平台推荐发现，即使在你可能认为是地区性或较小规模核冲突的模拟中，海冰也在扩大,” Lovenduski says. “即使是一个小冲突也会对气候系统产生很大的影响.”

The sunlight-blocking soot cloud would also make it difficult, if not impossible, for phytoplankton to photosynthesize and stay alive. Since phytoplankton, also known as microalgae, form the basis of the marine food chain; their demise would set in motion a chain reaction that would likely devastate fish and other marine wildlife populations.

在陆地上，科学家预测核冲突将导致灾难性的作物歉收. 如果世界人口希望通过转向海洋获取食物来取代这些作物, they likely wouldn’t find much to eat there, either.

“If the algae go, everything else goes, too,” Lovenduski says. “The ocean essentially starves as a result of these nuclear conflicts.”

Other takeaways

来自世界各地十几个机构的科学家在这个项目上进行了合作. 尽管他们早在俄罗斯2022年2月入侵乌克兰之前就开始工作了, 在核战争威胁加剧的背景下，这篇论文的发表时间增加了人们对他们工作的兴趣.

“Certainly, 博彩平台推荐的研究是在很多人比过去更关心核冲突威胁的时候发表的, so it’s very timely, unfortunately,” Lovenduski says. “博彩平台推荐的项目正变得越来越相关，这一事实令人沮丧和恐惧.”

科学家们希望他们的核战争预测永远不会成为现实, but, in the meantime, 他们将这一研究作为一个机会，更多地了解其他潜在破坏性事件的连锁反应. For instance, what would happen after a massive volcanic eruption, 这也会将阻挡阳光的物质和化学物质送入平流层? 

这些发现也有助于考虑气候变化的一个解决方案:人为冷却地球.

“有很多博彩app推荐地球工程气候的讨论，因为博彩平台推荐让它变暖了, so why don’t we fix it by making it cooler?” she says. “其中一些地球工程解决方案符合这种模拟, where you loft aerosols into the stratosphere to cool the planet. 这让博彩平台推荐了解了地球系统对这些人为冷却事件的反应.”

他们还希望他们的论文能提高普通民众对任何核冲突的认识, even a relatively small one, could have calamitous worldwide consequences.

“Even if there is a small, regional nuclear conflict far away from you, you can also be affected,” she says. “People are coming to realize how interconnected our global society is, especially after the pandemic, 即使是一天发生的小冲突也会对未来几个世纪的整个地球系统产生巨大影响.”