博彩平台推荐的研究员史蒂夫·米勒(Steve Miller)主张更深入地了解人们如何在受到冲击之前理解风险, especially those related to climate change, happen in global systems

The world is becoming increasingly interconnected, which has many benefits. Shoppers in Colorado, for instance, can enjoy tropical fruits in the dead of winter, thanks to vast and complex trade networks.

But this interconnectivity is also risky. 一个国家发生的战争或干旱可能对数千英里外的粮食供应和可负担性造成毁灭性后果. People and governments typically react to these shocks after the fact, such as by implementing trade bans or adjusting crop production, to help mitigate the harm locally. 

However, people and governments also try to manage risks proactively, before such shocks occur, which can then affect the broader system. For example, 一个沿海渔业社区担心由于气候变化导致鱼类资源崩溃的风险，可能会通过扩展生态旅游来实现经济多元化. 他们减少鱼类出口的决定可能反过来影响全球鱼类市场.

In this way, 风险不仅是全球互联系统的副产品，也是一种作用于该系统的力量, 一组跨学科研究人员在该杂志上发表的一篇新论文中提出了这样的观点 Nature Sustainability.

“If we want to understand the effects of a risk like climate change, 例如，博彩平台推荐不能只看贸易等联系如何帮助博彩平台推荐缓冲冲击的影响, droughts and wildfires—after they happen,” says lead author Steve Miller, an assistant professor in the University of Colorado Boulder Department of Environmental Studies. “博彩平台推荐还必须考虑这些事件的风险如何改变人们的生活, goods and information go even before shocks occur.”

一个日益相互联系的全球体系产生了一系列新的风险，这一观点被广泛接受，并成为许多研究和政策决定的背景. 然而，相反的一面——风险可以改变系统本身——常常被忽视.

为了真正理解和评估风险——比如气候变化带来的风险——世界需要同时关注这两个方面, the researchers argue.

“If we don't account for those feedbacks, we're not going to get the costs of climate change right, 博彩平台推荐可能会在选择如何或投资多少减缓和适应方面犯一些错误,” says Miller.

Perceiving and managing risk

Consider the effects of climate change on food availability, for example. 研究人员需要了解一个国家的作物歉收如何可能波及全球贸易网络，并在世界其他地方造成严重的粮食短缺.

But they also need to back up, long before the crop failure occurs, and look at how governments, farmers, 经销商和消费者意识到气候变化带来的作物歉收的风险——以及他们选择采取的应对措施, says Miller. 他们管理风险的努力——比如种植更多的防故障作物或购买更多的保护性保险——最终会反馈并改变更广泛的系统.

Beyond that, 由于感知到风险而做出的改变可能对人类和环境都有影响，而这些下游影响还没有得到很好的理解. For instance, 开始更加依赖生态旅游的沿海渔业社区现在必须努力应对新的风险, such as an economic downturn that dampens tourism.

风险是全球复杂体系的产物，但它们也在塑造这一体系方面发挥着作用.

“It's a simple point, but there's lots to do,” says Miller.

Future research

这篇新论文源于米勒和合著者之间的一系列后院聊天 Laura Dee, a CU Boulder assistant professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and Eréndira Aceves-Bueno, an assistant professor in the University of Washington’s School of Marine & Environmental Affairs.

谈话围绕着墨西哥的一些龙虾渔民和渔业合作社, Australia and New Zealand primarily sell their catch to markets in China. Each fishery faces many risks, 从当地龙虾数量的波动，到中国消费者口味的变化，再到全球供应链问题.

“这些人如何理解和应对这些风险，让博彩平台推荐思考在全球相关系统(如博彩平台推荐的粮食系统)中感知和管理风险的更普遍挑战,” says Miller.

为了思考这个复杂的话题，三人组联系了博彩平台推荐的其他研究人员Meghan Hayden in ecology and evolutionary biology and Amanda Carrico 以及其他机构的专家:Uchechukwu Jarrett, 内布拉斯加州林肯大学经济学实践副教授和凯特·布劳曼, 阿拉巴马大学全球水安全中心副主任.

Together, the collaborators produced a “Perspective,这是一种同行评议的论文，旨在激发讨论并激发新方法. More specifically, 共同作者希望他们的论文能够引发更多博彩app推荐人们如何感知和应对全球环境和社会经济联系系统中的风险的研究.

To that end, they suggest some possible research opportunities for theorists, empiricists, behavioral scientists and experts in particular types of connectivity, such as markets or species migration. For example, 他们建议进行实验室或实地试验，向农民展示各种风险情景, then asking them to explain their thought-processes as they assess each one.

“We need a lot more research,” says Miller. “It's a clear case where we need lots of expertise from many disciplines, and folks with transdisciplinary skills to bring it all together.”

‘Make better decisions’

More broadly, 合著者希望引起人们对复杂系统和风险之间的推拉关系的关注. 每一种都可以影响另一种，它们的相互作用远非直截了当.

In the future, they say, those working in research, industry, 政府机构和非政府组织(ngo)如果希望应对气候变化等复杂的全球挑战，就必须把重点放在这两个方面.

“如果博彩平台推荐能更好地将风险嵌入到这些系统如何运作的模型中，就像食物系统一样, trade in primary resources like timber, 或者生态旅游——我认为博彩平台推荐会得到更可靠的预测，比如气候变化会如何影响博彩平台推荐和博彩平台推荐赖以生存的生态系统,” says Miller. “With those better predictions, we can make better decisions.”

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